| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Cure worse than the disease? | |
| Posted by: | Andy Riley | |
| Date/Time: | 05/05/20 09:21:00 |
| Good points Adam, Recall that the original strategy was to build herd immunity with distancing, hygiene and isolation of the vulnerable. This was abandoned in favor of mass house arrest based on the dodgy pandemic modelling from the Imperial College team and elements of the media obsessed with attacking the government. The problem now is that significant segments of the British population seem to have taken to these authoritarian measures with some relish and seem to be rather enjoying the opportunities to spy and curtain twitch. I think the lock down strategy was originally defensible in the light of said dodgy modelling, but now we have more data and it is clear and a much better understanding of the threats from the virus (and a clearer idea of the the threats from the lock down). An interesting piece on the BBC web site today says that the first French case was in December, a month earlier than previously thought. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 This could explain why numerous studies have shown that far more people have been exposed than the original modelling assumed and perhaps why cases tend to tail off quicker than expected. The challenge now is how to explain the changes in the science and how that can lead to a relaxing of policy. For anyone who understands how science works this is not a major issue, but I worry that there will be a substantial number of people saying "but last month they said that, now they are saying this. Why can't they be consistent?" |